Re: SC44

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=6209

Another Great Depression?
The Fed's Role in the Bear Stearns Hedge Funds Meltdown

The Bank for International Settlements issued a warning this week that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies have created an enormous equity bubble which could lead to another “Great Depression”. The UK Telegraph says that, “The BIS--the ultimate bank of central bankers--pointed to a confluence of worrying signs", citing mass issuance of new-fangled credit instruments, soaring levels of household debt, extreme appetite for risk shown by investors, and entrenched imbalances in the world currency system.

The IMF and the UN have issued similar warnings, but they've all been shrugged off by the Bush administration. Neither Bush nor the Federal Reserve is interested in “course correction”. They plan to stick with the same harebrained policies until the end.

The “easy credit” which created the subprime crisis in mortgage lending has now spread to the hedge fund industry. The troubles at Bear Stearns prove that Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson’s assurance that the problem is “contained” is pure baloney. The contagion is swiftly moving through the entire system taking down home owners, mortgage lenders, banks, rating agencies, and hedge funds. We are just at the beginning of a system-wide breakdown.

The problem originated at the Federal Reserve when Fed-chief Alan Greenspan lowered the Feds Fund Rate to 1% in June 2003 and kept rates perilously low for more than 2 years. Trillions of dollars flowed into the economy through low interest loans creating a massive equity bubble in real estate which drove up housing prices and triggered a speculative frenzy.

The Feds’ “easy money” policy has disrupted the “debt-to-GDP” balance which maintains the integrity of the currency. By expanding circulation debt via low interest rates; Greenspan put the country on the path to hyperinflation and, very likely, the collapse of the monetary system.

The problems at Bear Stearns are the logical upshot of Greenspan’s policies. The over-leveraged hedge funds are a good example of what happens during a “credit boom”. Liquidity flows into the markets and raises the nominal value of all asset classes but, at the same time, GDP continues to shrink. That’s because the wages of working class people have stagnated and not kept pace with productivity. When workers have less discretionary income, consumer spending—which accounts for 70% of GDP—begins to decline. That’s why this quarters earnings reports have fallen short of expectations. The American consumer is "tapped out".

The current rise in stock prices does not indicate a healthy economy. It simply proves that the market is awash in cheap credit resulting from the Fed's increases in the money supply. Consumer spending is a better indicator of the real state of the economy than stocks. When consumer spending drops off; it is a sign of overcapacity, which is deflationary. That means that growth will continue to shrivel because maxed-out workers can no longer purchase the things they are making.

The underlying problem is not simply the Fed’s reckless increases to the money supply, but the growing “wealth gap” which is undermining solid economic growth. If wages don’t keep pace with productivity; the middle class loses its ability to buy consumer items and the economy slows.

The reason that hasn’t happened yet in the US is because of the extraordinary opportunities to expand personal debt. The Fed’s low interest rates have created a culture of borrowing which has convinced many people that debt equals wealth. It’s not; and the collapse in the housing market will prove how lethal that theory really is.

To large extent, the housing bubble has concealed the systematic destruction of America’s industrial and manufacturing base. Low interest rates have lulled the public to sleep while millions of high-paying jobs have been outsourced. The rise in housing prices has created the illusion of prosperity but, in truth, we are only selling houses to each other and are not making anything that the rest of the world wants. The $11 trillion dollars that was pumped into the real estate market is probably the greatest waste of capital investment in the nations’ history. It hasn't produced a single asset that will add to our collective wealth or industrial competitiveness. It’s been a total bust.

The Federal Reserve produces all the facts and figures related to the housing industry. They knew that trillions of dollars were being diverted into a speculative bubble, but they did nothing to stop it. Instead, they kept interest rates low and endorsed the lax lending standards which paved the way for millions of defaults. Now the effects of their "cheap money" policies have spread to the hedge fund industry where hundreds of billions of dollars in pensions and savings are in jeopardy.

Alan Greenspan played a major role in the housing boondoggle. On February 26, 2004, he said, “American consumers might benefit if lenders provide greater mortgage product alternatives to the traditional fixed rate mortgage. To the degree that households are driven by fears of payment shocks but willing to manage their own interest-rate risks, the traditional fixed-rate mortgage may be an expensive method of financing a home.”

Greenspan tacitly approved the whacky financing which produced all manner of untested loans—including ARMs, piggyback loans, “no doc” loans, “interest only” loans etc. These loans are a break from traditional financing and have contributed to the increase in bankruptcies.

Millions of people who were hoodwinked into buying homes with “interest-only”, “no down” loans will now either lose their homes or be shackled to an asset of decreasing value for the next 30 years. They've been tricked into a life of indentured servitude...........

...............The market is particularly sensitive to any rise in interest rates or tougher lending standards. It's become addicted to cheap credit and any break in the chain will cause equities to plummet.

Economist Henry C K Liu sums it up like this:

“The liquidity boom has been delivering strong growth through asset inflation without adding commensurate substantive expansion of the real economy. …. Unlike real physical assets, virtual financial mirages that arise out of thin air can evaporate again into thin air without warning. As inflation picks up, the liquidity boom and asset inflation will draw to a close, leaving a hollowed economy devoid of substance. …A global financial crisis is inevitable”. (Henry C K Liu “Liquidity boom and looming crisis” Asia Times)

In other words, the “virtual” wealth of Wall Street is a chimera which was created by the Fed's inexorable expansion of debt. It can vanish in a flash if the sources of liquidity are cut off.

Puru Saxena draws the same conclusion in his article “A Gradual Transition”:

“Thanks to the Federal Reserve’s expansionary monetary policies over the past 5 years, US asset-prices have risen considerably; also known as the “wealth effect”. At the end of last year, the market capitalization of the US stock market rose to a record-high of US$20.6 trillion, matching the value of household real-estate, which also rose to a record-high at the same time. On the surface, this may seem like brilliant news, however you must realize that this “wealth illusion” achieved by an ocean of money and record-high indebtedness is only a consequence of inflation."

Code Red: Subprime Chernobyl

We expect that the mounting losses in CDOs and the continuing defaults in the housing industry will precipitate a “severe credit crunch” which will end in a stock market crash. A report which appeared yesterday in the UK Telegraph appears to agree with this analysis. Lombard Street Research predicted that:

“Excess liquidity in the global system will be slashed. Banks Capital is about to be decimated, which will require calling in a swathe of loans. This is going to aggravate the US ‘hard landing”’ (“Banks set to call in swathe of loans” UK Telegraph 6-26-07)

Three of the main hoses which provide liquidity for the market, have either been cut off or severely damaged. These are "securatized" subprime CDOs, corporate mega-mergers and hedge fund leveraging. Without these instruments for expanding debt; liquidity will dry up and stocks will fall. The period of "easy credit" will end in disaster.

We should now be able to see the straight line that connects the Fed's low interest rates to the impending stock market meltdown...........