Re: HEAVY RAIN

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d n News-NWS_LOX-AN_INTENSE_ 12/31 843

AN INTENSE STORM BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
244 PM PST SAT DEC 31 2005

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-010600-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY COAST-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY NORTH COAST-
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-
CUYAMA VALLEY-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST-VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-
VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
244 PM PST SAT DEC 31 2005

...AN INTENSE STORM BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE THREATENED BY A SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM BEGINS TO MIGRATE
SOUTHWARD. THERE WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM THAT
MOVED THROUGH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORIA TODAY AND THE SECOND
MORE POWERFUL STORM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE STORM WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT THE AREA FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE MOST LIKELY
TIME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

ALL OF THE NECESSARY FACTORS APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE AREA. RAINFALL ESTIMATES
FOR THIS STORM ARE 2 TO 4 INCHES IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND PORTIONS OF VENTURA COUNTY. FOOTHILL AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN GENERALLY EXPECT 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH 10 INCHES
OR MORE POSSIBLE ON FAVORED SOUTH FACING SLOPES...SUCH AS THE SANTA
YNEZ RANGE AND THE MOUNTAINS OF VENTURA COUNTY. THERE WILL BE A
STRONG POTENTIAL FOR VERY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING
THE PEAK OF THE EVENT. WITH SUCH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND
SLIGHT INSTABILITY...THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

WITH A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS AND VERY INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES...THE BURN AREAS WILL CERTAINLY BE AT A VERY HIGH RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BURN AREAS THAT IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON TO
COVER THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM. OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AS WELL
AS FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

THIS SECOND STORM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PACK VERY STRONG WINDS...WITH
WIND ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS...
WHERE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH
WITH THIS POWERFUL SYSTEM. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN...THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR DOWNED TREES AND
POWER LINES ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THIS STORM WILL BE TOO WARM TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW BELOW 7000 FEET...BUT THE HIGHER PEAKS MAY STILL
GET A DECENT SHOT OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DIP BRIEFLY DOWN TO 6000 FEET OR SO MONDAY
NIGHT BUT THE BULK OF THE STORM WILL BE GONE BY THEN.

WITH THE ACTIVE STORMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC...LARGE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME...HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. IN
ADDITION...HIGH TIDES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THAT PERIOD...SO THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY TIME FRAME IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT (LAXMWSLOX) IS ALSO IN EFFECT TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...DANGEROUS SEAS...AND POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES ON THESE UPCOMING AND
POTENTIALLY POWERFUL STORM SYSTEMS. RESIDENTS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...ESPECIALLY THOSE NEAR OR BELOW BURN AREAS SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION...IN ADVANCE...TO PROTECT PROPERTY. IN
ADDITION...ANYONE PLANNING ON ATTENDING THE ROSE PARADE IN PERSON ON
MONDAY OR ANY OTHER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD PAY VERY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER REPORTS AND FORECAST AND TAKE ALL NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS BEFORE VENTURING OUT.

$$

KAPLAN/GOMBERG




EDIS-12-31-05 1444 PST