TWO STORMS ON TAP FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA

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TWO STORMS ON TAP FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS HOLIDAY W...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1000 PM PST FRI DEC 30 2005

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-311400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY COAST-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY NORTH COAST-
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-
CUYAMA VALLEY-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST-VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-
VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA
RANGE-ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
1000 PM PST FRI DEC 30 2005

...TWO STORMS ON TAP FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

...STORM NUMBER TWO EXPECTED TO BRING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND POWERFUL
WINDS...

DURING THE NEW YEARS WEEKEND...SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE
THREATENED BY TWO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAM BEGINS TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL EXPECTED TO
OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT SPREADS SOUTHWARD
INTO VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...LIGHT RAIN COULD BEGIN AS
EARLY AS THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVER VENTURA COUNTY AND LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR LOS ANGELES COUNTY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
HOURS ON SATURDAY.

THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A GOOD SOAKING TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO
AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1
AND 2 INCHES...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND AN
INCH...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS WILL BE A VERY REAL THREAT FOR THE
BURN AREAS...AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS.

THIS FIRST STORM WILL ALSO BRING STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO MUCH OF SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THE LATEST WIND INFORMATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT (LAXNPWLOX).

DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...SNOW LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED BE FAIRLY HIGH...GENERALLY ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE SECOND STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER...AND HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE TIMING ON THIS SECOND STORM REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE STORM WILL MOST
LIKELY AFFECT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

ALL OF THE NECESSARY FACTORS APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE AREA. RAINFALL ESTIMATES
FOR THIS STORM ARE 2 TO 4 INCHES IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY SOUTH COAST AND PORTIONS OF VENTURA COUNTY. FOOTHILL AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN GENERALLY EXPECT 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH 10 INCHES OR
MORE POSSIBLE ON FAVORED SOUTH FACING SLOPES...SUCH AS THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE AND THE MOUNTAINS OF VENTURA COUNTY. THERE WILL BE A STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR VERY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH 1.0
TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT.
WITH SUCH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SLIGHT INSTABILITY...THERE
WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

WITH A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS AND VERY INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES...THE BURN AREAS WILL CERTAINLY BE AT A VERY HIGH RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
TIME FRAME. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE
FIRST STORM WILL MOST CERTAINLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME TO COVER
THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM. OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE LIKELY
TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AS WELL AS FLOODING
OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

THIS SECOND STORM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PACK VERY STRONG WINDS...WITH
WIND ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE ALL OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 60
TO 70 MPH WITH THIS POWERFUL SYSTEM. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN...THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR DOWNED TREES AND POWER
LINES ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THIS STORM WILL BE TOO WARM TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW BELOW 7000 FEET...BUT THE HIGHER PEAKS MAY STILL
GET A DECENT SHOT OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DIP BRIEFLY DOWN TO 6000 FEET OR SO MONDAY
NIGHT BUT THE BULK OF THE STORM WILL BE GONE BY THEN.

WITH THE ACTIVE STORMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC...LARGE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME...HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. IN
ADDITION...HIGH TIDES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THAT PERIOD...SO THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY TIME FRAME IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT (LAXMWSLOX) IS ALSO IN EFFECT TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...DANGEROUS SEAS...AND POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES ON THESE UPCOMING AND
POTENTIALLY POWERFUL STORM SYSTEMS. RESIDENTS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...ESPECIALLY THOSE NEAR OR BELOW BURN AREAS SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION...IN ADVANCE...TO PROTECT PROPERTY. IN
ADDITION...ANYONE PLANNING ON ATTENDING THE ROSE PARADE IN PERSON ON
MONDAY OR ANY OTHER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD PAY VERY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER REPORTS AND FORECAST AND TAKE ALL NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS BEFORE VENTURING OUT.

$$

GOMBERG

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES.



EDIS-12-30-05 2159 PST