AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS66 KLOX 301759
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1000 AM PST FRI DEC 30 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...MAIN CHANGES I SEE WITH THE 12Z ARE THE
CONTINUING SLOWER TREND IN THE MODELS FOR THE FIRST STORM TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DON`T SHOW ANY MEASURABLE RAIN
ARRIVING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST UNTIL AFTER 12Z SAT, HOWEVER I
THINK WITH THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP WE`LL SEE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS THERE MUCH EARLIER THAN THAT. WILL LEAVE IN THE LOW
POPS UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ANY RAINFALL THERE WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT UNTIL THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND ARRIVES SATURDAY MORNING.

THIS DELAY MEANS RAIN IN LA COUNTY MAY NOT START UNTIL VERY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON, AND WILL LAST LONGER INTO THE EVENING. WILL ADJUST
POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

DON`T SEE ANY PROBLEMS WITH FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS THOSE STILL
LOOK VERY MUCH ON TRACK. THIS FIRST STORM WILL BE A GOOD ONE BY SO
CAL STANDARDS, BUT WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO STORM NUMBER 2
ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

UPDATED THE BURN AREA FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS MORNING TO REMOVE A FEW
ZONES THAT DON`T HAVE BURN AREAS, SUCH AS ZONES 35, 36, 41, AND 46.
ALSO, TIMING ON THE WATCH MAY BE A BIT EARLY SINCE HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED FOR VTU/LA COUNTIES UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE, THE
WATCH IS VALID AND NO FURTHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.

*** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM...THE SECOND WAVE ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF AND THOUGH PW`S ARE LOWER...JET
DYNAMICS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ARE STRONGER SO THE SECOND WAVE LIKELY
WILL PROVIDE THE HEAVIEST BURST OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PT
CONCEPTION WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL BE STRONGEST. MAY
EVENTUALLY ALSO HAVE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ALL THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS ARE STILL
COMING TOGETHER FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA. STORM TOTALS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WHILE
FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 4 AND 8
INCHES. AND SOME SOUTH FACING SLOPES (ESPECIALLY THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE AND THE VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS) COULD LOCALLY RECEIVE IN
EXCESS OF 10 INCHES OR RAIN!

WITH SUCH A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...THE BURN AREAS WILL CERTAINLY
BE AT A VERY HIGH RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS DURING THE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIME FRAME. OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING OF ROADWAYS.
IN SHORT...STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY WET TIME PERIOD FOR THE ROSE
PARADE MONDAY MORNING. REFER TO THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
(LAXSPSLOX) FOR MORE DETAILS ON THESE UPCOMING SYSTEMS.

THIS SECOND STORM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PACK STRONG WINDS...WITH
WIND ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOME OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AS WELL. SOUTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY TIGHTENS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...WHILE 850
MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS OR GREATER ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THIS STORM WILL BE TOO WARM TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW BELOW 7000 FEET (OUR CRITERIA FOR WINTER STORM
HEADLINES) BUT SKI RESORTS (AT LEAST THE TOP HALF OF THEM) MAY STILL
GET A DECENT SHOT OF WET SNOW... ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DIP BRIEFLY DOWN TO 6000 FEET OR SO MONDAY
NIGHT BUT THE BULK OF THE STORM WILL BE GONE BY THEN.

THIS LAST STORM SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER TUE-THURS AN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
WRN STATES.

&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF WEATHER SYSTEM.
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST
ALONG WITH SOME RAIN. THE RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE
SOUTH TO KSBA/KOXR OVERNIGHT...AND INTO THE LAX BASIN TOWARDS
MORNING. SOME LIGHT VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT KLGB/KLAX.

&&
.MARINE...MORNING BUOY REPORTS INDICATE CONTINUED GRADUAL DECREASE
IN WESTERLY SWELL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...HAVE
ALLOWED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TO EXPIRE
THIS MORNING. SURF/SWELL SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY/TUESDAY...ANOTHER LARGE WESTERLY SWELL IS FORECAST TO AFFECT
THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS TO WEST-FACING BEACHES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...THOMPSON