http://energybulletin.net/9978.html ...... "Quite simply, we are consuming oil far faster than we can find it," Skrebowski says. "For the next three years, I believe we will scrape by. After that, it gets progressively more difficult." The exact timing of a global peak, and the speed at which supplies then decline, is fiercely debated. Some analysts give it 10 years or more, others suggest that we may have reached that point already. Skrebowski, who sees oil companies struggling to hold production levels now, and knows how hard it is for the oil industry to move, estimates 2008.

The truth is that it is impossible to know until after the event because several years of output need to be compared. But the date may be immaterial. Oil peak is bound to come, after which the only thing that countries can do is to reduce demand. Unless this is handled well, it is bound to put the brake on economic growth and lead to chaos and potentially large-scale depression. So far, there is little evidence that governments are preparing for the level of oil shocks being contemplated.

"Governments are in denial about the scale of what is needed to be done," Skrebowski says. "We are moving in to a new world without maps. We are all likely to be poorer".

Michael Meacher, the former environment minister, warns that the scale of the change required in the world economy is "nothing short of apocalyptical. Our whole civilisation is overwhelmingly dependent on oil.