SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS66 KLOX 230446
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
945 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2005

.SHORT TERM...VERY HOT INLAND TODAY OVER THE DISTRICT. TWO MORE RECORD HIGHS WERE SET INCLUDING WOODLAND HILLS (PIERCE COLLEGE) AT 109 DEGREES...AND CHATSWORTH AT 105 DEGREES. THERE WERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN ANTELOPE VALLEY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON... AND A THUNDERSHOWER OVER THE NORTHERN VTU MOUNTAINS. ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DISSIPATED BEFORE SUNSET. SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST LATE TONIGHT.

AN ELONGATED W-E UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA SAT THRU MON. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 590 DM THRU THE PERIOD...AND WITH HIGH THICKNESS VALUES IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INLAND AND ALONG L.A. COASTAL AREAS. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WARMEST INLAND AREAS.

MOISTURE AT LOWER AND MID LEVELS IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE DISTRICT AS WELL. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE EMILY IS FORECAST TO SLIDE JUST TO THE S OF THE DISTRICT SAT AND SUN. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THRU MON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SE TO E OVER THE WEEKEND...AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS E OF THE DISTRICT COULD DRIFT INTO L.A. COUNTY COAST AND VALLEYS SAT EVENING THRU SUN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM...THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TUES AND WED...AND QUITE POSSIBLY THURS AND FRI. HOWEVER...SOME EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN A LITTLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE WEST COAST THURSDAY. OTHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT AFTN ONSHORE INCREASES. SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME COOLING NEAR THE COAST...BUT CONTINUED WARM TO HOT INLAND.

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.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS NEAR KSMX LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT...AND ISOLATED TSRA OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS 21Z-03Z SAT AFT AND EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).

&&



PUBLIC...MOYER/SIRARD

AVIATION...WOFFORD/SIRARD