Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
413 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2010

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-181400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
413 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2010

...SEVERAL STORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEK...BRINGING HEAVY
TO EXCESSIVE RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS AND A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOW...

...PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE SURF WILL ALSO CAUSE PROBLEMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND THIS WEEK...

A VERY POWERFUL WEST TO EAST JET STREAM SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE PACIFIC WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF STRONG STORM SYSTEMS TO TRACK
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE MAINTAINING A RICH SOURCE OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.

SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
IN ADVANCE OF OUR FIRST STRONG STORM SYSTEM. RAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FIRST STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.
LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAVORED SOUTH FACING
SLOPES. THE STATION BURN AREA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH THIS FIRST STORM SYSTEM...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PEAK RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 0.75 INCHES AND 1.00 INCH
PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCAL RATES
OVER 1.25 INCHES PER HOUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND ACROSS FAVORED SOUTH FACING
SLOPES...INCLUDING THE STATION AND MORRIS BURN AREAS.

VERY STRONG TO DAMAGING SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY...MUCH OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WATCHES IN
EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN
MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES
AS WINDS COULD GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH. PLEASE REFER TO
(LAXNPWLOX) FOR ADDITIONAL WIND INFORMATION.

IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY SNOW AND DAMAGING WINDS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 6500 AND 7000 FEET ON MONDAY...THEN
LOWER TO BETWEEN 5500 AND 6000 FEET MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 7000 FEET...WITH 4 TO 12 INCHES
EXPECTED BETWEEN 6000 AND 700 FEET. PLEASE REFER TO (LAXWSWLOX) FOR
DETAILED INFORMATION ON WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER BUT WEAKER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE THIRD AND MOST LIKELY STRONGEST STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. A COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 4000 TO 6000 FEET WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOWFALL LIKELY. FOR THE ENTIRE
WEEK...RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...AND 8 TO 16 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 20 INCHES ARE QUITE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAVORED SOUTH FACING COASTAL SLOPES. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
WETTEST WEEK SINCE EARLY 2005. ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE LARGE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL...WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS...ESPECIALLY TO THE RECENT
BURN AREAS. PLEASE REFER TO (LAXFFALOX) FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. SINCE
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL...THERE WILL
ALSO BE A THREAT OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND NUMEROUS
ROCKSLIDES...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEK AS SOILS BECOME MORE
SATURATED. IF THE STRONG STORM MATERIALIZES FOR THE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME MAIN
STEM RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS.

DANGEROUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS
THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS...HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...COASTAL FLOODING...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN WATERSPOUTS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. FOR FURTHER
MARINE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT AND COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT.

RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THESE POTENTIALLY STRONG STORM SYSTEMS. LISTEN
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE...OR VISIT OUR
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES FOR THE LATEST UPDATES OF
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS.

$$