Re: Very hot on Saturday

FXUS66 KLOX 160416

AFDLOX



SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
917 PM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...TEMPERATURES WORKED OUT PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS AS HOT AS 110 IN THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS...107 AT PASO ROBLES AND 105 TO 112 IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA WAS REALLY ONLY MET IN THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS...SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE AIRMASS WAS TOO DRY TO TRIP HEAT INDEX READINGS THAT QUALIFY AS EXCESSIVE HEAT.



THE MARINE INVERSION IS ABOUT AS EXPECTED...HOVERING AROUND 500 FEET OVER THE LA BASIN...AND LITTLE DEEPER NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. COASTAL STRATUS WILL LINGER OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF WESTERN SBA AND SLO COUNTIES...OTHERWISE WITH MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENTS ACROSS SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY AND WEAK GRADIENTS FARTHER SOUTH AND THE IMPENDING ARRIVAL OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ARIZONA SEVERE STORMS...THE STRATUS SHOULD BE KEPT AT BAY. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME PATCHY STRATUS DEVELOPED ON THE SRN LA COUNTY COAST. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT ABOVE 1500 FEET WITH SOME LOWS NOT GETTING BELOW 80 DEGREES. SUNDAY LOOKS A TAD WARMER WELL INLAND...BUT A TAD COOLER OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VALLEYS. HAVE ADJUSTED APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS AND DATABASES.

WINDS THROUGH SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ARE NOT AS STRONG AS THEY WERE LAST EVENING...BUT LOCAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH STILL POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

I`VE BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE MTNS AND DESERTS LOOKS GOOD AS WELL AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK IT`S WAY INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TEMPS TOMORROW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS QUITE TRICKY. GIVEN THE EDDY, THE
WRF IS PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT TRACK SHOWING COOLING AT MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. IN FACT, PROFILERS AT LAX AND SAN FERNANDO ARE BOTH SHOWING SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT, USUALLY THE EARLY SIGNS OF A DEVELOPING EDDY. MET GUIDANCE HAS THE RIGHT TRENDS FOR THE MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AND FORECAST FOLLOWS THOSE NUMBERS PRETTY CLOSELY. THE EXPECTED COOLING SHOULD DROP AT LEAST THE VALLEYS OUT OF THE EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA, THOUGH THERE MAY BE A NARROW ZONE OF HIGH HEAT INDICES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS, ABOVE THE INFLUENCE OF THE EDDY CIRCULATION. SO WILL GO AHEAD AND LET THE WARNING EXPIRE TONIGHT AT 6 AND JUST MENTION SOME ISOLATED READINGS SUNDAY ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA.

CONTINUED LOWER ELEVATION COOLING MONDAY WITH THE EDDY CIRCULATION AND INCREASING ONSHORE GRADIENTS. 10 MB LAX-DAG SEEMS A BIT EXCESSIVE BUT AGAIN, THE TREND IS PROBABLY ON TRACK. WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AGAIN BE CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL COAST AT MOST. NOT MUCH RELIEF EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS. WE SHOULD SEE CONVECTION INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTH END OF THE HIGH AND INTO OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE DESERT SW AND FOUR CORNERS REGION.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOST OF NEXT WEEK SO HAVE CONTINUED THE LOW THREAT OF STORMS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE 90S AND LOWER 100S AND BEACHES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.



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.AVIATION...LIFR CONDS LIKELY AT KSMX AND KSBP OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL. LOW CONFIDENCE OF CIGS 002-005 NEAR KLGB LATE TONIGHT. LLWS VCNTY KSBA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS FLOWING OVER AND THROUGH GAPS OF SANTA YNEZ RANGE.



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.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).