Re: SC69

http://survivalacres.com/wordpress/

.............The collapse of civilization is a broad euphemism for masses of dead people in most parts of the world. Let’s not kid ourselves here. When our civilization collapses, it is going to mean massive body counts and death by violent means. It will also mean death by disease, starvation and more then a few self-inflictions.

The recently shared story on global ecological collapse, all by itself, signifies that our overpopulated world cannot possibly sustain 7+ billion people much longer. Environmentally speaking, we have depleted the world’s sustenance to such a degree, that our very survival (food) is at stake and has been for some time. More then simply supplementing this, our mega-farms throughout the world have made it dangerously possible to feed the world’s billions by overproduction and overtaxing the land far beyond sustainable levels. This has been possible through climate, the heavy application of fertilizers and pesticides, industrialization and mechanization, and a global just-in-time distribution system entirely reliant upon cheap oil.

All of this production and resulting human population requires massive energy inputs of extracted resources and a tolerable climate conducive for crops. Current predictions for climate and energy resource availability (and affordability) are dire indeed. If anything, they consistently underestimate the reality of what is actually happening to our planet, its climate and its resources. This is a dramatic understatement, one which bears careful consideration.

Energy and environmental predictions are being moved up by decades, as better science, measurements and assessments of what is really happening to our planet come forward. The so-called ‘predictions’ I have made are not my own, but the actual assessments of leading world scientists and researchers who have come to realize what I have, and that is our world is in dire peril.

The bottom line is our world can no longer support 7 billion people (and never could for very long), let alone the futuristic predictions of 10 billion, 12 billion or even more souls offered by some so-called “futurists”. Environmental collapse alone will cause the death of billions, soon. Energy collapse will help ensure this reality. Financial collapse will nail the coffin shut and resource collapse will be the signature on the last will and testament for most of mankind. Who’s going to live and who’s going to die then becomes a very pertinent and pressing question for this generation.

I will not try to “account” for unknown variables such as luck, chance and opportunity, which are unknown to all. Nor will I ascribe any “hope” to superstition or wishful thinking (religion) or magical rescues from above (alien or otherwise). Instead, I will deal with knowns and unknowns (reality).

Environmental collapse (ecological) means the world’s natural food supply will have reached maximum capacity for extraction and sustenance for human populations. This “date” has already occurred, and we are at least 20 years now past our maximum extraction capacity of the natural food supply. During this time, the world’s population has nearly doubled, while the natural food supply began a steep decline.

In some parts of the world, these food sources have never recovered since that time (and never will, as long as human population continues to grow). The Atlantic cod fisheries for example, collapsed in the early 90’s and has no chance of recovery due to constant overfishing. Tuna, swordfish, marlin, sharks, halibut and flounder have also collapsed to less then 10% of their former levels. Over 40% of the worlds billions depend upon the ocean fisheries, their collapse poses dire conditions for the world’s food supply.

Environmental collapse also means the collapse of land-based ecosystems, such as the Amazon rainforest and critical topsoils throughout the world through erosion, compaction, depletion and in some areas such as Australia, salinization. The rainforest provides the lungs of the Earth, absorbing huge quantities of carbon dioxide, but we’re still cutting down and burning massive quantities of trees on a daily basis.

Other examples of environmental changes include disease emergence, abrupt alterations in water quality, the depletion of natural aquifers, the creation of “dead zones” in coastal waters, the collapse of land and ocean fisheries, fertilizer “plumes”, and shifts in regional climate.

This also indicates the inability of natural food systems to continue to provide essential food for burgeoning human populations as we continue rape and pillage these areas for resources. The Living Planet Report said the natural world was being degraded “at a rate unprecedented in human history“. Our very way of life (existence) is now threatened by too many people consuming too many resources.

Facts and Figures of Ecosystem Changes

Water withdrawal and impoundment

* Water withdrawals from rivers and lakes for irrigation, household, and industrial use doubled in the last 40 years.
* Humans now use between 40% and 50% of the fresh water running off land to which the majority of the population has access.
* In some regions, such as the Middle East and North Africa, humans use 120% of renewable supplies (due to the reliance on groundwater that is not recharged).
* Between 1960 and 2000, reservoir storage capacity quadrupled and, as a result, the amount of water stored behind large dams is estimated to be three to six times the amount held by natural river channels (this excludes natural lakes).

Land conversion and degradation

* More land was converted to cropland in the 30 years after 1950 than in the 150 years between 1700 and 1850, and now approximately one quarter (24%) of Earth’s terrestrial surface has been transformed to cultivated systems.
* Since about 1980, approximately 35% of mangroves have been lost, while 20% of the world’s coral reefs have been destroyed and a further 20% badly degraded or destroyed.
* Nutrient use and levels
* Human activities now produce more biologically usable nitrogen than is produced by all natural processes combined, and more than half of all the manufactured nitrogen fertilizer first produced in 1913) ever used on the planet has been applied since 1985.
* The flow of nitrogen to the oceans has doubled since 1860.
* The use of phosphorus fertilizers and the rate of phosphorus accumulation in agricultural soils both increased nearly threefold between 1960 and 1990. Although the rate has declined somewhat since then, phosphorus can remain in soils for decades before entering the wider environment.

Fisheries

* At least one quarter of marine fish stocks are overharvested.
* The quantity of fish caught by humans increased until the 1980s but is now declining because of the shortage of stocks.
* In many sea areas, the total weight of fish available to be captured is less than a tenth of that available before the onset of industrial fishing.
* Inland fisheries, especially important for providing high-quality diets for the poor, have also declined due to overfishing, changes to habitats, and withdrawal of fresh water.

In essence, the collapse of our planetary ecosystems has already occurred as shown by the examples of above and cannot possibly hope to recover, or hope to provide the essential food sources for the existing human population. Without the massive food production provided by mega-farms and gigantic corporate enterprises, the world would have long since entered into irreversible starvation.

Right now, drought is encompassing over 30% of the Earth. The seriousness of this situation is not lost on many governments of the world who are making desperate moves to save their farmers and their national food supply. However, climate is something that humans have very little direct control over. We are far past the trigger points for “uncontrollable” global warming (a misnomer if there ever was one). Current greenhouse gas emissions continue to climb despite a growing world-wide awareness of the issue and we have now entered into an irreversible decline in our planetary climate.

In other words, we’re simply NOT going to be able to grow enough food to feed the existing population very soon. We may be “there” already, but just don’t know it yet as we consume the remaining stocks in our warehouses and silos.

We are also dealing with other issues, such as fertilizer shortages (produced by natural gas) and of course, petroleum depletion and their sky rocketing costs. These two issues, taken entirely alone from all the other factors now working against us, will create conditions of famine and starvation in many parts of the world.

Resource depletion however, has now taken a more serious turn then this, which was bound to happen due to severe overpopulation. Oil resources peaked over 20 years ago. The world reached peak oil discovery in the United States in 1970 and peak oil production worldwide in 2005. Oil IS food, providing the energy required to farm tens of millions of acres and provide the processing and distribution capacity to transport billions of tons of food stuffs throughout the world.

We are now on the downslope of oil production and oil discovery and there is absolutely nothing on the horizon that will solve this problem. This means our food production potential, without any other factors taken into account, will be in steep decline from here on out. Without oil, we cannot power our farms and raise the mega-harvests we have grown accustomed to. Without cheap oil and the artificial fertilizers we make from (cheap) natural gas, we are already facing a decline in production. A decline in production capacity means famine for some countries, and limited food stuffs in others.

Right now, the poor third-world countries are being hit by food shortages. This follows on the heels of economic crisis and collapse and poor governmental practices. South Africa for example, actively destroyed much of their farmland capabilities and brought famine early to their country (but it would have happened anyway). Other countries have suffered devastating climate change effects and severely limited crop productions and exports as a result, such as the Ukraine and Argentina, some of the largest food producers in the world. Australia, normally the world’s second-largest wheat exporter, has been suffering from an epic drought................

To say there are big problems ahead for humanity would be a monumental understatement.