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The weather isn't looking good for us either

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September 13, 2006 11:32AM
FXUS66 KLOX 131724
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1024 AM PDT WED SEP 13 2006

.SHORT TERM...MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED THIS MORNING...NOW
AROUND 1000 FEET BASED ON THE GOLETA PROFILER. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE HUGGING ALL COASTAL ZONES THIS MORNING WITH VERY LITTLE ERODING
GOING ON. EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN
THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING ON SHORE FLOW OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS
OR SO. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO ERODE TO JUST PAST THE BEACHES
TODAY...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS PROGRESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...EXPECT A DEEPER INLAND PENETRATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TONIGHT. THIS TREND IS COVERED NICELY IN THE LATEST FORECAST.

PEAKING AT THE LONGER RANGE THIS MORNING...A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW WELL
MODELS ARE HANDLING THE SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST. TROUGH
DIVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MAKES ITS
WAY EAST. EXPECT A DECENT NORTHWEST PUSH HERE LATER THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL UNFORTUNATELY HELP FAN THE DAY FIRE. INCREASING RH`S WILL HELP
OFFSET THESE WINDS A BIT. BUT THE QUESTION AS USUAL IS HOW DEEP AND
HOW FAST. WRF IS NOT AS COLD WITH THE SYSTEM AND THUS MOVES IT EAST
A LITTLE FASTER AND NOT AS FAR SOUTH. GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ALL
HAVE A COLDER SYSTEM THAT DIGS DEEPER AND FARTHER WEST. BOTH WRF AND
GFS SHOW OFF SHORE EVENTS OVER THE WEEKEND...THE WRF ON
SATURDAY...THE GFS ON SUNDAY. AM LEANING TO THE GFS BASED ON LATEST
COMPARISON TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. GFS
APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE STRENGTHENING UPSTREAM RIDGE PUNCHING
INTO ALASKA WELL...AND THE FURTHER TROUGH UPSTREAM AT 160 WEST. THIS
FAVORS SOME DEGREE OF OFF SHORE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY. WILL LOOK INTO
THIS A LITTLE FURTHER IN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

NO UPDATES NEEDED TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY WILL BE CLEAR AS THE INVERSION SHOULD BE WELL
MIXED OUT. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A LITTLE AS HGTS INCH UP AND THERE
WILL BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST SANTA ANA OF THE SEASON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEVADA. DID NOT GO WHOLE HOG WITH THE WIND FCST
SINCE THERE HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH MDL CONTINUITY BUT RAISED TEMPS AND
PUT SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE VLYS AND MTNS. OFFSHORE FORECAST
SHOULD PRECLUDE CLOUD FORMATION AS WELL AS INCREASING VLY AND CST
TEMPS.

NOT TOO SURE HOW MONDAY WILL PLAY OUT CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE A
LITTLE TO PESSIMISTIC IF OFFSHORE FLOW PANS OUT. BUT HAVE SEEN MDLS
FLIP FLOP WAY TO MANY TIMES ON OFFSHORE FLOW SO WILL LEAVE ALONE FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF 700 FEET IS CREATING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS AT
COASTAL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. STRONG INVERSION WILL LIMIT CLEARING
THERE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GENERAL VSBY IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR BY
18Z. INLAND TAFS WILL BE CLEAR AND WORRY FREE.

KLAX WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER A LOW CIG (AROUND 600-800 FEET)
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION. VSBYS MAY LOWER TO
LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT RISE TO AT LEAST MVFR AND
POSSIBLY VFR BY 17-18Z.

THE CIGS AND VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS LOW TONIGHT AT
THE COAST AS THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION WEAKENS AND THE OVERALL
DEPTH INCREASES. THIS ALSO SHOULD ALLOW FOR PENETRATION OF IFR-MVFR
CIGS AND VSBSYS INTO COASTAL AND SOME INLAND VALLEYS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

PUBLIC...JACKSON/ASR
AVIATION...TRM
SubjectAuthorViewsPosted

Fire at Cajon

Rick 614September 05, 2006 08:34PM

Re: Fire at Cajon

Wizard 395September 05, 2006 09:34PM

Blue Cut fire along I-15 about quelled

Rick 422September 12, 2006 05:07PM

Re: Fire at Cajon

Gary 424September 13, 2006 10:25AM

The weather isn't looking good for us either

Rick 610September 13, 2006 11:32AM



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