Re: Apple Valley weekend weather?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION


FXUS66 KLOX 101825
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1025 AM PST FRI MAR 10 2006

.SHORT TERM...OVERALL...EVERYTHING WORKING OUT AS FORECAST SO
FAR. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED THIS MORNING...AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL RATES
WITH THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN UNDER 0.25" PER HOUR. SNOW LEVELS ARE
ALSO DROPPING AS EXPECTED...WITH SPOTTER REPORTS EARLIER FROM
SAN MARCOS PASS INDICATED A RAIN/SNOW MIX AROUND 2500 FEET. 12Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE/COLD AIR THROUGH
SATURDAY. SO...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WHILE SNOW LEVELS DROP TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
FEET. IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP TO AS LOW AS
1500 FEET TONIGHT/SATURDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL TRICKY...GIVEN
SHOWERY NATURE OF PRECIPITATION. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH FOR MOST AREAS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH EXPECTED SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND SNOW LEVELS...WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND
WINTER WX ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
MOUNTAINS...SLO/SBA INTERIOR VALLEYS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
ALSO...GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR BURN AREAS.

*** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM...AFTER A VERY COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME WARMING
WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES E AND HGTS
REBOUND. TEMPS SHOULD EDGE BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS ON MON...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE TAIL END OF
A COLD FRONT WILL DRAG THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. IT STILL LOOKS
HIGHLY DOUBTFUL THAT THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIP S OF PT
CONCEPTION...BUT WILL LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. WED AND
THURS LOOK DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...

FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING TO BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 FT
TODAY...THEN DROPPING EVEN LOWER TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY TO 2000
FT. WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCAL SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS
1500 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING. NW TO W WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE
VALLEY. NOT EXPECTING A WELL DEFINED FRONT TODAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL
BE SCATTERED IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY N OF POINT CONCEPTION.
EXPECT MVFR-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN MOST CASES. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
AND VERY STRONG JET MOVING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...THEREFORE
ISOLATED LIFR VSBYS CANT BE RULED OUT. HAVE RECEIVED MANY PILOT
REPORTS EXPERIENCING SEVERE TURBULENCE THROUGH THE CAJON PASS
OVERNIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE
LOCAL PASSES WITH COLD AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH WINDS TODAY.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AFFECTING
KPMD AND KWJF. KLAX WILL EXPERIENCE PREVAILING W WINDS OF 20 KT WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...SWEET