Re: SC21

http://www.whiskeyandgunpowder.com/Archives/20060811.html

Nothing Like Business as Usual

...........Oil at $100-150 per Barrel

In a recent public address to the Senate of Australia, Bakhtiari stated that "I can see a range of $100-150 [per barrel of oil] not very far into the future." He amplified this statement as follows:

"We are entering an era in which we know nothing much, where we have a brand-new set of rules...One of these new rules, in my opinion, is that there will be in the very near future nothing like business as usual. In my opinion, nothing is usual from now on for any of the countries involved. And the lower you are in the pile, the worse it is going to get."

Bakhtiari believes that the world is at Peak Oil, producing about as much conventional oil on a daily basis as will ever be produced, now about 84 million barrels per day. From here on, the oil markets of the world will be dealing with the ongoing effects of oil field depletion and irreversible production decline. By 2025, Bakhtiari expects that the world's daily production of conventional oil will fall to a level between 50-55 million barrels of oil per day ( world consumption currently around 84 million barrels a day ). Bakhtiari counsels that the world's governments, industries, and people accept the fact and begin to prepare. There is no time to lose.

Bakhtiari is pessimistic about the prospects for large-scale energy projects based on manufactured fuels, such as coal-to-oil and gas-to-oil projects. His reasons are many, ranging from the scale and cost of such projects to the raw environmental degradation they cause. In addition, much of the feedstock for these projects, for raw material and/or process heat, is supposed to come from natural gas. But natural gas supplies are about to "peak" worldwide and commence their own irreversible curve of decline, so this is not a long-term solution. Of the 30-million-barrel-per-day decline in conventional oil production that Bakhtiari envisions over the next 20 years, he anticipates that manufactured fuels will substitute for only about 5 million barrels per day. "This is a drop of water in the ocean," says Bakhtiari.

In addition, Bakhtiari is pessimistic on the future of ethanol as an oil substitute, because it will pit the world's food supply against the needs of the world's built-up transportation system for liquid fuels. "People have to eat," says Bakhtiari.......

..........Addicted to Oil and Cold Soup

"Whether we like it or not," said Bakhtiari in a recent posting, "all developed societies are addicted to crude oil and its myriad derivatives." However, he continues, "Many decision-makers are trying to park 'Peak Oil' in the farthest corner of their minds (praying it will go away), and remain in denial that there is no replacement for oil." Bakhtiari amplified this comment in another discussion:

"Nobody likes the idea of Peak Oil. Firstly, you have the politicians. Naturally, a politician will never say that there is such a thing as Peak Oil. It is suicide to give bad news, so a politician will never do that...Secondly you have the media. The media do not like Peak Oil. Why? There is no sponsorship for Peak Oil. The oil companies do not like Peak Oil because you should not say that your soup is cold; you should always say that it is very hot and very tasty, yes? So nobody wants to hear of this phenomenon of Peak Oil.".............