Another storm

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STORM SYSTEM ON TAP FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
345 PM PST TUE FEB 17 2004

ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-CUYAMA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-345 PM PST TUE FEB 17 2004

...STORM SYSTEM ON TAP FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUED TO BRING RAIN TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONTAL BAND WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND BRING A THREAT OF RAIN TO THE CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...THE GREATEST THREAT OF RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WHILE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE INCREASING DYNAMICAL SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. AS A RESULT...THERE IS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL INTENSITIES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ONE THIRD OF AN INCH PER HOUR...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...THESE RAINFALL RATES ARE LOWER THAN CRITICAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRESHOLDS FOR THE BURN AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. HOWEVER...EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND RESIDENTS NEAR THE BURN AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES...WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN ONE THIRD AND ONE INCH...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO (1.50) INCHES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON EDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...SNOW LEVELS COULD FALL AS LOW AS 4500 FEET. A LARGE PORTION OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE THE INFLUX OF THE COLDEST AIR...RESULTING IN MODEST SNOWFALL TOTALS. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET CAN GENERALLY EXPECT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 8000 FEET. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES.

WHILE SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES...MOST AREAS WILL SEE A DRYING TREND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

$$

GOMBERG

[SPSLOX / WWUS86 KLOX 1077062689]

EDIS-02-17-04 1604 PST