.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...
CURRENT SAT PICTURES SHOW A WEAK CUTOFF LOW WOBBLING OVER THE
PACIFIC ABOUT 900 MI OFF OF SAN FRAN. AS WITH ALL CUTOFFS...MODELS
AND FORECASTERS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE WHEN AND WHERE OF THIS
FEATURE. WHILE ALL PARTIES AGREE THIS LOW IS POISED TO DEEPEN...THE
GFS CONTINUES TO LIKE THE IDEA OF THIS SYSTEM MOVING DUE EAST TO
JUST OFF THE BAY AREA COAST BY THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF WAS SWOOPING
IT MORE TO THE NORTH...BUT THE 12Z RUN JUST CAME IT MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS BUT STILL SLOWER. ALTHOUGH THE WHEN QUESTION WILL
REMAIN A SOURCE OF FRUSTRATION...IF THIS LOW ENDS UP PASSING OVER
THE BAY AREA...AND AT THE SNAILS PACE THE MODELS ARE HINTING
AT...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA WOULD BE UNDER A PROLONGED DURATION OF
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTING THIS WEEKEND. SO WHILE FRI MAY BE A
TOUCH WARMER THAN WED AND THU AS A NARROW RIDGE SETS UP BETWEEN THIS
CUTOFF AND THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE REST OF THE COUNTRY...WE MAY BE
IN STORE FOR COOLER TEMPS...INCREASING CLOUDS...AND EVEN THE THOUGHT
OF SOME PRECIPITATION. CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP BOTH FEET
IN THE CONSERVATIVE RING WITH LITTLE CHANGE...BUT WITH AN EYE FIXED
ON WHAT IS HAPPENING OUTSIDE.