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The Moon is Waxing Gibbous (55% of Full)



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June 21, 2009 05:14PM

Catastrophic Fall in 2009 Global Food Production

.........Global food Catastrophe

The world is heading for a drop in agricultural production of 20 to 40 percent, depending on the severity and length of the current global droughts. Food producing nations are imposing food export restrictions. Food prices will soar, and, in poor countries with food deficits, millions will starve.

The deflation debate should end now

The droughts plaguing the world's biggest agricultural regions should end the debate about deflation in 2009. The demand for agricultural commodities is relatively immune to developments in the business cycles (at least compared to that of energy or base metals), and, with a 20 to 40 percent decline in world production, already rising food prices are headed significantly higher.

In fact, agricultural commodities NEED to head higher and soon, to prevent even greater food shortages and famine. The price of wheat, corn, soybeans, etc must rise to a level which encourages the planting of every available acre with the best possible fertilizers. Otherwise, if food prices stay at their current levels, production will continue to fall, sentencing millions more to starvation.

Competitive currency appreciation

Some observers are anticipating “competitive currency devaluations” in addition to deflation for 2009 (nations devalue their currencies to help their export sector). The coming global food shortage makes this highly unlikely. Depreciating their currency in the current environment will produce the unwanted consequence of boosting exports—of food. Even with export restrictions like those in China, currency depreciation would cause the outflow of significant quantities of grain via the black market.

Instead of “competitive currency devaluations”, spiking food prices will likely cause competitive currency appreciation in 2009. Foreign exchange reserves exist for just this type of emergency . Central banks around the world will lower domestic food prices by either directly selling off their reserves to appreciate their currencies or by using them to purchase grain on the world market.

Appreciating a currency is the fastest way to control food inflation. A more valuable currency allows a nation to monopolize more global resources (ie: the overvalued dollar allows the US to consume 25% of the world's oil despite having only 4% of the world's population). If China were to selloff its US reserves, its enormous population would start sucking up the world's food supply like the US has been doing with oil.

On the flip side, when a nation appreciates its currency and starts consuming more of the world's resources, it leaves less for everyone else. So when china appreciates the yuan, food shortages worldwide will increase and prices everywhere else will jump upwards. As there is nothing that breeds social unrest like soaring food prices, nations around the world, from Russia, to the EU, to Saudi Arabia, to India, will sell off their foreign reserves to appreciate their currencies and reduce the cost of food imports. In response to this, China will sell even more of its reserves and so on. That is competitive currency appreciation.

When faced with competitive currency appreciation, you do NOT want to be the world's reserve currency. The dollar is likely to do very poorly as central banks liquidate trillions in US holdings to buy food and appreciate their currencies..........

Read the rest of this article to learn of the severe problems with food production in various regions of the world. and here is some commentary at the survivalacres.com website to this article:

........mattbg Says:
June 20th, 2009 at 4:51 am
National Geographic had a good article on the Australian drought in April:


logrithmic Says:
June 20th, 2009 at 10:45 am
Saw this article too. Very disturbing. Price of food will be skyrocketing. Right now we’ve had a deluge of rain (northeast KS). Just checked my blueberry plants (first year planting). One of my Dukes has brown leaves on it. My search on the web suggests it may be suffering from overwater. Nothing I can do about the rain though - we had 3.5 inches this week alone.

lonewolf Says:
June 20th, 2009 at 11:22 am
“The world is heading for a drop in agricultural production [read: ‘drop’ in population] of 20 to 40 percent [in 2009], depending on the severity and length of the current global droughts.”

Interestingly (to me), this ‘report’ doesn’t mention a 100-yr drought in the northern and western Canadian grainbelt (as asserted by some locals). It’s not especially dry here in Montana - yet (albeit we remain is a “historic drought” and, strangely, Montana Wheat Inc. (major ‘operator’) hasn’t even started planting yet (TMK, and I can see many of their huge fields from my perch on top of my world.)

The FKN sheeple will not bleat for long, after being interrupted from their mindless grazing on delusionary distraction, before the exquisitely-moronic (hence infinitely dangerous) herd stampedes.

Get ready to rumble (in the belly as it shall be elsewhere)

lonewolf Says:
June 20th, 2009 at 11:56 am
“A billion to go hungry with food prices back on rise”


And a few billion more will ‘think’ that they are starving - and they will react accordingly (which is not to say appropriately or effectively)

MSquirrel Says:
June 21st, 2009 at 4:16 am
Looks like they also didn’t mention that GMO crops are failing world-wide as well.

mattbg Says:
June 21st, 2009 at 6:15 am
On top of this, for awhile now, some countries (i.e. Saudi Arabia, China) that have exceeded their capacity to grow for themselves are buying farmland in foreign countries (mostly Africa AFAIK), growing their food abroad, and shipping it back home. This may be an issue of water more than anything else… as agricultural exports constitute a massive effective export of water.

Land ownership is not that clear in these areas and I expect there is considerable advantage being taken. It will be interesting to see the local reaction to these types of things if things get serious.

admin Says:
June 21st, 2009 at 9:09 am
I saw several videos yesterday on monoculture tree plantations. These appear to be having an absolutely devastating effect upon the water supplies. They are “green deserts” where nothing else lives, and have destroyed region after region. You can check these out here: World Rain Forest Videos

mattbg Says:
June 21st, 2009 at 9:54 am
admin, that is a perfect example of why it’s not OK to cut down existing forests and then replace them with “tree planting campaigns”. “Plant a tree” doesn’t restore the ecosystem of the forest that was cut down, nor does it help rebuild one in a decimated forest. It’s good for guilt-assuaging, though.

admin Says:
June 21st, 2009 at 10:49 am
I agree. The more I absorb about our activity, the more convinced I am becoming that we will utterly and totally fail to save ourselves. I’m not even sure anymore if collapse will save us, as we will go right back to doing what we’re doing now (if we can).

A 2007 issue of National Geographic I was reading showed the unbelievable pace of development in China. It’s breathtakingly scary.

Nothing “we” do is going to make any difference now. All those people who try, large or small, big or little, it’s not enough, not even close.

The same issue showed the Big Thaw taking place all over the world, as the planet heats up very rapidly, decimating ice packs, glaciers and water supplies all over the world.

Die off will help, but peak energy, peak oil and the collapse of civilization cannot happen soon enough.

What still ‘amazes’ me is that we are so stupid to do all this in the first place. The almighty dollar (or yuan) and the love of money is absolutely destroying the world. It’s so unbelievably stupid and wasteful. The destruction caused by human greed is truly appalling.........


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