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Re: SC83

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January 10, 2009 09:55PM
http://aspo-usa.com/

The Top 10 Peak-Oil-Related Stories of 2008

............10. Global Production Peaks, on the Production Plateau

The EIA reports that since 2005 production of conventional oil has been on a plateau, cycling up and down between 72 and 74 million b/d. In July 2008 production reached a new all-time high of 74.86 million b/d and has been dropping since. As OPEC is currently implementing production cuts totaling 4 million b/d, several major producers such as Mexico and Russia are in decline or do not have much growth potential; and investment in new production is drying up due to economic conditions, the likelihood that the July bump to a new high will stand as the all-time peak of world conventional oil production is increasing.

The IEA reports that “all-liquids” production which includes conventional oil, biofuels, natural gas liquids, and tar sands production, reached 86.5 million b/d in November, but this is subject to revision.

It is ironic that the all-time peak of world oil production seems to be happening in the midst of a global recession of unknown duration. While it is possible that the global economy could rebound in the next few years and markedly increase the demand for oil, it is clear that the industry is no longer able to respond with large increases in production as it did earlier this decade. All things considered, it is inevitable that declining world oil production, which is currently linked to declining demand and OPEC policy, will eventually be governed by production constraints. These constraints, due to a combination of geological factors, lack of adequate investment, geopolitical conflicts, and resource nationalism, make it likely that oil production will never again reach the highs seen in 2008.
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