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Re: SC39

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March 23, 2007 11:04PM
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article586.html

War with Iran, Crude Oil, Banks and the US Dollar

............This Global Energy War seems no different, only the evasive confusing and seemingly misdirected messages pertaining to democracy, even perhaps terrorism. As for dangerous explosives and microbes, look closer to home. The most dangerous weapons of mass destruction are phony money, bad economic policy, lost industrial base, coerced emphasis away from future technology, consumption over investment, and corruption waste & fraud. The United States Govt has all these, but talks about enemy threats a great deal as a distraction. The war finally was revealed from official sources within the current Administration last autumn as being about control of oil, which is vital to our economy...........

.........The United States needs the war to secure supplies, dominate in the supply line, and to put in a proximal presence for the Persian Gulf . Doing so establishes the US as the first customer for oil delivery and helps to ensure the USDollar as the preferred transaction currency. If things go boom on the eastern shores of the Persian Gulf before income taxes are due this April in the deteriorating homeland, once more, the war will be about oil after more misdirection............

...........My steadfast claim all along, for the last 18 months, ever since Iran showed up on the radar, is that Iran is more a story about a wall to cut the West from new energy supply, and associated banking of oil money. The same brilliant politically motivated geniuses who gave us the WMD lame argument as cause for war continue to ply their trade. They have given us nuclear proliferation as the argument for attacking Iran . Sure, they might be on a slow track for nuclear refinement, but oil pipelines and a major Russian alliance and Chinese mega energy contracts and befriending former Soviet Republics in “Chaostan” and selling oil in euro transactions and integrated regional energy & military weapons contracts and monumental accumulation of wealth (Western debt) in the East and power shift from West to East, reaction to these powerful forces is the real true valid unmistakable motives for war . The American public is a bit too ignorant, hapless, distracted, uninformed, and conveniently sleepy to properly grasp the issue............

...............The biggest untold story in the energy world in my opinion is the rapid decline in Mexico at their Cantarell elephant oil field. My February and March Hat Trick Letter reports cover the story, with full details, facts & figures. Cantarell oil production declined by 13.5% in 2006, and on track to decline by 15% additionally this year? Will the Mexican Govt suffer massive deficits soon? Will their Parliament and PEMEX labor unions obstruct ALL possible reforms and construction actions? My conclusion is that political instability is soon to come to the southern border of the United States !!! All $97 billion in PEMEX oil sales in 2006 went to the Mexican Govt to account for 40% of its budget. The absurdly incompetent Mexican Govt (rivals Washington DC and USGovt) has seen fit to commandeer almost every penny of PEMEX oil income, denying much needed funds for investment in new exploration, new capacity, even crimping basic maintenance. The press is on the story in Mexico City, but not so much in the sleepy US, where reality shows and the latest missing persons and porous borders and murder trials dominate, the latest on obesity & diabetes, if not gay marriage. PEMEX is the second biggest supplier of oil to the USEconomy. Experts now forecast that by 2010, Mexico will be on the verge of becoming an oil importer. Unlike the Saudi story, shrouded in state secrecy, the Mexican disaster is in plain view, with no debate. In fact, there has been no recognition even though the facts are laid bare for all to see.

Then comes Saudi output. Talk about putting into service excess capacity, expanding output, cutting output, agreeing on quotas, agreeing on output cuts, taking action against violator nations, bringing Angola into the OPEC fold, all this is well and good for distraction. The story to focus upon out of OPEC headquarters is the sharp decline in Saudi oil production since 2005, as shown by the graphic below, taken from The Oil Drum. This aint output cutbacks to support price. This is depletion evidence taken in four views from four sources, with four parallel trendlines. The time span shown overlaps with the push in the oil price up to the Lebanon War last July. This Saudi oil output decline all occurred, despite a 150% rampup in oil rigs in Saudi oil fields from January 2005 onward, as reported by Baker Hughes. The Saudi decline is the biggest unreported energy story, with Cantarell the second. Huge implications come to the US economy as a direct domino from higher oil prices. Talk on Wall Street of downward oil price trends are more propaganda and self-serving promotional chatter, as the major firms like Goldman Sachs are loading up on their energy investment positions. The risks to the USDollar are rising from both liberal monetary forces and desperate energy forces, not to mention geopolitical backlash forces...........................
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