Re: SC38

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/press.asp?rls_id=713&cat_id=6

The Quiet Energy Crisis

Do you think gasoline prices are too high? Do you think illegal immigration is a problem? Well, get ready for more of both, because Mexico, the #3 supplier of imported fuel to the U.S., is spiraling into a quiet energy crisis that could interrupt our oil supplies, send shockwaves through our economy, and force a million or more Mexicans to migrate across our border.

Consider this: In December 2005, Mexico sent the U.S. 1.7 million barrels of oil per day (bpd). This past December, Mexico only exported 1.2 million bpd to the U.S.

Why is Mexico sending less oil? Because it’s producing less oil........

.........There’s a single force at work here — production is falling at Cantarell, Mexico’s biggest oil field (and the second-largest producing field in the world). Accounting for more than half of Mexican oil production, Cantarell lies deep under the waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Water and gas are encroaching on the oil, and that’s lowering output.

Cantarell’s output tumbled by half a million bpd last year, according to figures released by the Mexican government. That is much, much faster than estimates from Mexico’s state-run oil company, Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex). If this decline rate continues, Cantarell’s production will be cut in half by 2010.


And Pemex has another problem — it simply doesn’t have the money to develop its other resources............

..........I already told you that 55% of Pemex’s sales went right into government coffers last year. On top of that, Mexico relies on oil exports for about 40% of its revenue. So Cantarell’s decline is a big problem Mexico’s President Felipe Calderon...........

...............Calderon has vowed to raise spending on social programs, but that will be hard to do with less oil money coming in. If Cantarell’s production collapses, Pemex’s revenues will dry up, and a huge chunk of the Mexican government’s budget will vaporize. Social spending won’t go up — it will go down.


We’re already seeing something like 250,000 Mexicans enter the U.S. illegally every year. With more than 25 million Mexicans living in poverty, how many more will trek north if Cantarell collapses and the government lacks the money to fund social programs?..........