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Re: WET PATTERN EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

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February 08, 2007 02:32PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION


FXUS66 KLOX 082142
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
145 PM PST THU FEB 8 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WITH SEVERAL VORT MAXES SWIRLING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LONG PLUME OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW. SO...THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER FOR US
IN THE SHORT TERM.

12Z GFS/WRF ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
WITH REGARD TO OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH GFS
IS MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE
WRF SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WHICH WARRANTS SOME CHANCE OF POPS. SO
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR PRECIP TIMING...EXPECTING A CHANCE
OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY
RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON DOWN TO LAX COUNTY. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE LIKELY
TO CHANCE POPS FOR ALL AREAS. ON SATURDAY...BOTH GFS/WRF INDICATE
MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES...WITH RAIN BECOMING LIKELY IN THE
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY
...MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE WRF WOULD INDICATE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA.

AS FOR ACTUAL QPF AMOUNTS...AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE 1-2 INCHES IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS IS VERY REASONABLE WITH EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS VERY LIKELY. SO...BURN AREAS COULD HAVE SOME FLOOD/DEBRIS
FLOW ISSUES. SO...IF THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN THIS
CURRENT THINKING...EITHER THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TONIGHT OR YOURS TRULY
ON THE FRIDAY DAY SHIFT WILL LIKELY ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR
THE BURN AREAS.

WITH THIS RAIN EVENT...SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY AS SYSTEM IS RATHER WARM. SO...BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WILL EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO AROUND 7000 FEET
AT THE WORST. SO...WILL NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINTER
WEATHER PROBLEMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...EXPECT RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. SO...THINGS
SHOULD DRY OUT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL MAINLY TO THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST...NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG IS QUITE LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR LOCAL NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH LOCALLY
DENSE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&





PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...SWEET

SubjectAuthorViewsPosted

WET PATTERN EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Rick 589February 06, 2007 01:26AM

Re: WET PATTERN EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LaughingBear 340February 06, 2007 01:32PM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

Rick 372February 06, 2007 03:51PM

Re: WET PATTERN EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LaughingBear 391February 06, 2007 05:18PM

Re: WET PATTERN EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Rick 338February 08, 2007 10:54AM

Re: WET PATTERN EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Paul P. 388February 08, 2007 02:20PM

Re: WET PATTERN EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Rick 351February 08, 2007 02:32PM

Re: WET PATTERN EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LaughingBear 343February 10, 2007 11:53AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

Rick 383February 13, 2007 04:13PM

Re: WET PATTERN EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Wizard 327February 13, 2007 09:03PM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

Rick 355February 18, 2007 07:09PM

Re: WET PATTERN EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LaughingBear 343February 18, 2007 09:38PM

Re: WET PATTERN EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LaughingBear 356February 21, 2007 03:19PM

Re: WET PATTERN EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Rick 691February 21, 2007 05:05PM



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