Re: SC28

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/11/05/ccliam05.xml

Russian bear could punch our lights out

With the clocks now back and the cold weather drawing in, our leaders' minds are turning to the possibility of an energy shortage this winter.

Last week, while all eyes were on Sir Nicholas Stern's climate change report, the Commons debated whether we were in for a repeat of January's energy scare, when gas supplies ran dangerously low, causing consumer prices to spike.

The Government's reassurances were somewhat half-hearted. "We are hopeful that electricity supplies this winter will be more than sufficient," said Alistair Darling, the Trade & Industry Secretary. Only "hopeful"?

Gas supplies would be protected under "all credible scenarios", insisted Malcolm Wicks, the energy minister. But he admitted that the market would be "very tight".

In the aftermath of Stern's report, "renewables" are in vogue. The reality is, though, that for this winter – and for the next 20 years at least – Britain's most crucial energy source is gas.

In 1990 gas accounted for only 1 per cent of our electricity generation. That figure is now 39 per cent – outstripping all other fuels. With North Sea reserves declining, we now import 10 per cent of our gas. But by 2020 official estimates put the UK's gas import dependence at – get this – no less than 80 per cent.

That brings Russia centre stage. As well as being a hugely strategic oil exporter, Russia is the world's mightiest gas power by far. Home to a third of the world's known reserves, the country has over 70 per cent more gas than its nearest rival – which, incidentally, is Iran..........

As discussed in this excellent article, increasingly energy supplies will equal power and influence. Massive and ongoing moves like that Russia is recently involved with regarding energy, are being made around the world, with once dominate US interest, being less and less a part of the overall equation. You can't run huge modern economies like the US and Great Brittian with out energy, and in a world showing building signs that oil and gas are very close to, if not at peak of production, our societies will begin faltering as these energy supplies wane in abundance and affordability.