http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20060915.RGROPPE15/TPStory/Business

Get ready for price rationing, oil guru says
Groppe foresees new oil era of high prices, limited supply, new consumption patterns

Henry Groppe has been tracking the ups and downs of oil through 60 years, 11 U.S. presidents and five full cycles in the commodity. So he knows what he's talking about when he says that this time, it's different.

"This is the most interesting time I've ever experienced," he said.

The 80-year-old Texan, who has been an independent consultant on oil and gas markets for longer than most of his competitors have been alive, believes we have seen more than just an overheated oil market over the past couple of years. Rather, he argues it's the beginning of a new era for oil -- one of sustained high prices, limited supplies and tough consumer choices.

"We think this is new territory," Mr. Groppe said in an interview this week in Toronto. "We call this new era 'The Era of Price Rationing.' We think that total world production is levelling out and will be declining, and prices are going to have to be high enough to restrain consumption to match a supply that's no longer growing."

What this means is that investors and consumers shouldn't read too much into the recent 17-per-cent drop in crude prices from their August peaks, a move he dismissed as a typical seasonal dip..........

........He said the previous era, "The Era of OPEC Control," came to an end in 2004 when it became apparent production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries had peaked. The era before that, "The Era of U.S. Control," ended in 1970 when production in the United States, then world's dominant producer, reached its peak -- just as peak-oil theorists had predicted.

"That's what's in store for every field, every region, every country and ultimately the world."...........

........In the meantime, "major volatility is inherent from now on." Every little shift in supplies will send tremors through a market that, producing full-out, won't have flexibility to absorb short-term shocks..........

GM declared lately that it wanted to achieve " mass production " of hydrogen fueled vehicles by 2011, but there exist no feasible hydrogen supply means at present, and the cost and energy required to create a nationwide hydrogen energy fueling infrastructure make this objective of GM's, realistically, in the realm of wishful thinking. Also Ford declared today massive cutbacks planned for its workforce, because of declining sales. Some big oil " experts " have suggested recently that there's plenty of oil to go around for our future energy needs, but then why do we need to create a hydrogen vehicle infrastructure if that is true. Ford's declining sales of its " cash cow " big Suv's has hit the skids, bringing this corporation to its knees, representing one of the first casualties of declining oil supplies and higher fuel prices. Interesting to see all the 9-11, Taliban, Osama Hoopla of this last week. Afganistan has been out of sight in the media for such a long time, and now its being reported on constantly. Why are we still in Afganistan, they say, to keep a lid on the Taliban, and to controll all the Heroin production thats proliferated since the US " liberated " that country. Well I heard a first hand report from a woman who has business in Afganistan on just what is occuring there in real terms, and by her asssesment, your basic Afgan person feels anything but liberated by US involvement in thier country. Hamid Karzi ( spelling ? ) who the US installed as the current Afganistan leader is ex oil executive, how convenient. This woman's said that the country as a whole, is completly beyond Karzi's controll. He is a puppet of this US administration. Afganistan is needed by this administration as another place to instill US military bases, for purposes of attempting to control the oil and natural gas energy supplies of that region. How can anyone be really supprised at the quickly growing sentiment against recent US policy and actions in the middle east, in response to the empirialistic moves by Bush. Just today you have Hugo Chavez meeting with the president of Iran, and Fidel Casto down in Cuba, and you can bet they are making thier own plans to respond to the premptive and militaristic moves by this adminstration since 9-11, and it should be of no supprise. Would the US public, tolerated for one minute, some other country occupying any space of our land, because some other country made up LIES that we were perceived to be a threat to them. This all reminds me of that movie by Tom Cruise, " Minority Report ", which in some future time people get arrested because the technology of a future time allows law enforcement to indentify crimes you are " about " to commit. So as it is, the Bush administration is showing signs that it may attack Iran, and it will be a " pre-emptive response to be sure, based on " facts " similiar to what we saw proposed before we attacked Iraq. If we attack Iran, it will come because of what Bush proposes Iran is " about " to do, dependent on the same kind of " solid " information used to convince the American public that we were pursueing a reasonable, and correct course. But regarding Iraq, its clear now it was all made up lies, not confusing and unclear information, just lies. So are we going to let Bush lead us, in our name, down that same crazy and dis-honest path again, regarding Iran? Its one thing to reasonable protect you self as a society, but what Bush is doing, has nothing to do with this, its all about maintenace of power and wealth. While the American public gets fed a daily dose of propaganda from the Corporation controlled media, the rest of the world who has been adversly affected by Bushes irresponsible and arrogant moves is preparing in a variety of ways to counter the moves by this administration to " steal " the strategically important hydrocarbon energy of many other nations, specifically in the middle east. In proceeding in one's endeavors of life, purpose to my mind, come's from following as closely as possible, the path of treating others with a sense of ethical behavior. I think we as a nation should address the rest of the world, in the same manner. The path Bush is following, has completely diverged from this. Just today, he is doing his best to re-write the Geneva Convention to his own liking, attempting to in essence, legalize his own form of torture. Asked today about what he ( Bush ) would think if other countries did the same regarding US prisoners, he fumbled in his words, as usual, implied that he hoped they would just follow his proposed alterations to the " geneva code " of how to treat prisoners. Whats really going on is the recent admission by Bush of the " Extrodinarly Rendition " prisons, where various prisoners have been " secretly " held in other " un-disclosed " locations, in other countries. Bush said that we are treating these prisoners fairly, and not doing anything un-ethical, but then why do they need to do it all in secret, in other counties, away from sight, why? Because they know how the American public would really react, to what they are " really " doing, needing the veil of countries outside the US, to do thier dirty work of abusing prisoners, without consequence, or compliance to current US law. So now Bush wants to change the rules of " prisoner treatment " , in order to legalize the ongoing abuse they have been party to, regarding extrodinary rendition, retroactive, to prevent them from being prosecuted for what they have already done. If we let Bush change the rules of prisoner treatment, then other countries will follow suit according to thier own interest. Bush has never been a soldier, he has never fought in any war, his kids will never see battle, and he finds it so easy to put others like our soldiers ( mothers, fathers, son's, daughters, etc ) in harms way for his own made up false, pre-emptive war causes, and those that may become prisoners of some foreign power, will possibly suffer even more because of what he ( Bush ) is trying to pull off now, regarding changing the rules of the Geneva Convention. We as the public of this US nation must be involved and informed, and then must produce actions that compell change, to have any chance of insuring that our leaders carry out our collective objectives in this world, in an honorable and sensible fashion. We absoulutely need change now, will enough people act?