Re: Watch the weather

FXUS66 KLOX 171712
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
905 AM PST FRI FEB 17 2006

.SHORT TERM...WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SANTA BARBARA COUNTY WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITHIN A NARROW BAND AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE INITIALIZED FEATURE REASONABLY WELL AND WEAKENS IT AS IT MOVES OVER THE BIGHT THIS AFTERNOON. NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION WRITTEN BY PREVIOUS SHIFT.

FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...A SECOND...MORE
SIGNIFICANT...IMPULSE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MODELS INDICATE VERY GOOD MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...BEST ESTIMATES FOR RAINFALL TOTALS ARE BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE MOST PROBLEMATIC FEATURE WITH THIS STORM WILL BE SNOW LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4000 FEET ON SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD PLUMMET TO AROUND 3000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. SO...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE ANTELOPE AND CUYAMA VALLEYS. WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FACT THIS IS A HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...SNOW LEVEL COULD EVEN DROP TO 2000 FEET SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD PRODUCE A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE FOOTHILL COMMUNITIES IN THE VALLEYS. SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS...COMPOUNDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER STORM CONDITIONS.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE EAST...RESULTING IN DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITION.

.LONG TERM...DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE POSSIBILTY OF SOME WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF PT CONCEPTION WILL OCCASIONALLY BRING CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR CONDS AT TIMES. S OF PT CONCEPTION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER 19Z...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. Z LEVELS GENERALLY 3000 FT N TO 4000 FT S.

&&


.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WATCH (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...FORWOOD/THOMPSON
AVIATION...BRUNO