The cooperative approach is obviously the best choice, but I think it cannot work if one of the members of the group is being a pig and using far more energy than anyone else. That would be us (US). Cooperation would probably mean a decrease in per capita energy use, and the US way of life is not negotiable. Therefore we use guns. Even ignoring the moral issues, I think it will fail...........
The US can now be expected to intensify its efforts at "regime change" in Russia's sphere and inside Russia itself. The elections in Belarus and Ukraine in March will provide opportunities. But Russia is displaying a determination to push back hard against all such efforts, and the weapons in its arsenal are irresistible. Europe's complicity with the US will come back to haunt it as it pays the price for endangering Russia's legitimate interests. Everywhere, the involvement of the US hand equals pointedly increased instability and economic harm. Europe will have no choice but to side with Russia against the US when push soon comes to shove...........
This is a well-trained approach towards 3rd world countries, called "double standards". It's simply becoming more and more brutal with time. My fear is that with oil and NG getting scarcer, countries like Russia will be becoming more and more tempted to retaliate and also become brutal in defending their interests..........
Its a natural process, seekers of Empire, can't help but sow the seeds, of thier demise.