Re: Gonna Be Windy

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS66 KLOX 181701
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 900 AM PST FRI NOV 18 2005

.SHORT TERM...MODERATE SANTA ANA EVENT ONGOING WITH SOLID WIND
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE ADVISED AREA (VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTIES). HAVE SEEN AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SEE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 25 AND 40 MPH. EXTREMELY LOW HUMIDITY IS OCCURING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE IMMEDIATE
LEE OF MOUNTAIN RANGES. LEO CARRILLO ON THE EXTREME WEST COAST
OF LA COUNTY ALONG THE PCH HAS HAD RH VALUES LESS THAN 8 PERCENT
SINCE LAST EVENING.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE -7 MB LAX-DAG AND -13 MB LAX-TPH.
SIMI VALLEY PROFILER IS SHOWING 50 KT WINDS ABOVE ABOUT 2000
FEET. THIS IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE 12Z NAM INITIALIZED
WITH THIS MORNING...AND DOES RAISE SOME CONCERN THAT HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA MAY BE MET OVER A LARGER AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY FOR ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO HIGH WIND WARNING.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOME
RELAXING OF THE WIND THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY
AGAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS THIS
MORNING.

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SYNOPTICALLY AN OMEGA-LIKE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WRN U.S. THRU SAT WITH SOME BREAKDOWN EXPECTED
SUN WITH AN UPPER LOW REMAINING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. EVEN ONCE THE
GRADIENTS WEAKEN AND WINDS SUBSIDE SATURDAY TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
ON THE WARM-SIDE INTO NEXT WEEK CWA-WIDE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST NEXT WEEK...SINCE THEY TAKE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS WELL
TO OUR WEST RIGHT NOW AND MOVE IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH BY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY SHIFT IN THE FORECAST PATH OF THIS LOW TO THE NORTH
WILL RESULT IN MORE OF AN ONSHORE PUSH FOR OUR AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK-SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF EARLIER
FORECASTS AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR NOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECTED SUSTAINED RH LEVELS BELOW 10 PERCENT
OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
CUYAMA VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY HAS PROMPTED THE EXPANSION OF
THE RED FLAG WARNING INTO THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE VERY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES AND/OR GUSTY NORHTEAST WINDS DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS WILL NECESSITATE THE CONTINUATION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING
FOR LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THRU SAT MORNING. STRONG NELY
WINDS BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WILL CAUSE
SOME LOW LVL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING AT KBUR...KVNY AND POSSIBLY
OCCASIONALLY AT KLOX. XPCT STRONG NELY WINDS TO SURFACE FROM TIME
TO TIME TODAY AT KBUR WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KT POSSIBLE. STRONG
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE MORE PERSISTENT AT KVNY TODAY...AND FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH THE DAY AT KOXR.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...MOYER/MORRIS
AVIATION...BRUNO