AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS66 KLOX 072133
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
130 PM PST MON NOV 7 2005

.SHORT TERM...A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS WEEK AND THE 12Z/18Z
MODELS ARE STILL NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF COMPROMISE OR MERGING
TOWARDS ONE SOLUTION OR THE OTHER. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THERE HAS BEEN
VERY LITTLE SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY.
MEANWHILE, THE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH BEHIND THE
BACK EDGE WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE GFS HAS BEEN SUGGESTING.
CERTAINLY AT THIS TIME I WOULD FAVOR A SOLUTION MUCH CLOSER TO THE
GFS, BUT CONSIDERING THE NAM IS STILL STICKING TO IT`S PERVERBIAL
GUNS AND GOING WITH 100 PERCENT POPS OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING (VERSUS 8-12 POPS FROM THE GFS) I FEEL I NEED TO
AT LEAST TAKE IT`S SOLUTION INTO ACCOUNT.

VBG AND VTX RADARS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SHOWING WEAK RETURNS
FROM SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS OFFSHORE. A LOT OF THIS HAS DISSIPATED
BEFORE REACHING LAND, HOWEVER CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWER THIS EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, DECIDED TO KEEP SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST
EVERYWHERE, BUT LOWERED THEM A CATEGORY OR SO. CURRENTLY THE
FORECAST IS TRULY A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM MODELS BUT I`M STRONGLY
LEADING TOWARDS THE GFS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING
THE LOW CUTTING OFF WELL TO OUR WEST. IF THIS HAPPENS, THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NRN CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS
IT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH. SINCE THE NAM KEEPS THE UPPER LOW MUCH CLOSER
TO THE COAST IT MAINTAINS A MUCH STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THUS
MUCH MORE RAIN. AT THIS TIME THIS WETTER SOLUTION IS NOT PREFERRED,
BUT IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER. THUS, THE REASON WHY
THE FORECAST IS PRETTY GENERIC AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ALSO PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE OF THE HUGE MODEL DIFFERENCES.
HAVE DECIDED TO WARM TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TUES AND WED TO BE
CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE DRIER (AND LESS CLOUDY) GFS SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM...SIMILAR UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST. THE GFS SOLUTION KEEP THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE UNTIL LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY IF
THE UPPER LOW DOES INDEED TAKE THIS LONG TO MOVE EAST. NATURALLY THE
WARMING TREND WE HAD EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE
DELAYED UNTIL AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME THE WEEKEND
FORECAST IS DRY AND MUCH WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITHIN STRONG SW
FLOW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE
WILL DEEPEN NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP WITHIN WEAK ASCENDING MID LEVEL FLOW...OFF SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ACCELERATE ASHORE. SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH EXTENDS 900NM
OFFSHORE. LOW CLOUDS WERE DRIFTING WITHIN THE BIGHT THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP
AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. CAPPING MARINE INVERSION
BASE WAS ABOUT 1.7KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT LITTLE VARIATION
OVERNIGHT BUT THEN MIX OUT AS THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY MODIFIES
THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE CURVE THROUGH TUE MORNING. FREEZING LEVEL
WAS AROUND 14KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DESCEND TO 12KFT OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM APPROACHES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).
&&

PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...FORWOOD