MAIN UPPER LOW SPINNING ABOUT 600 NM WEST OF MONTEREY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION


FXUS66 KLOX 032042
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
145 PM PDT MON APR 3 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...MAIN UPPER LOW SPINNING ABOUT 600 NM WEST
OF MONTEREY. THE LOW IS PULLING UP HIGH PW AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES CONFIRM THE MODEL PREDICTIONS OF AROUND 1.3-1.4
INCHES. UNTIL THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO MOVE EAST WE`RE GOING TO
CONTINUE TO SEE BANDS OF RAIN STREAMING INTO OUR AREA, AND RIGHT NOW
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN IS FROM ABOUT SMX SOUTH INTO VENTURA COUNTY.
SLO AND LA COUNTIES ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER (GOOD NEWS FOR BASEBALL
FANS), THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE AT ANY TIME.

SO, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGH POPS AND INCREASING RAIN
AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT INCREASES AND
MOISTURE BECOMES MORE PLENTIFUL. FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD FOR
THE BURN AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH THERE DOESN`T
APPEAR TO BE ANY IMMEDIATE THREAT WITH RADARS SHOWING GENERALLY JUST
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SHOWERS OFFSHORE. IT WILL BE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME THE BREAKS IN THE RAIN WITH THIS EVENT SO PERIODS
OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS GOOD.

SNOW LEVELS WAY UP THERE WITH PROFILERS AND SOUNDINGS ALL SHOWING
FREEZING LEVELS WELL ABOVE 8000 FEET. COULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE HIGHER PEAKS, BUT BELOW THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE
RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. SNOW LEVELS
DO COME DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT THE STORM WILL BE
WINDING DOWN BY THEN. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ACCUMULATIONS BELOW 7000
TO WARRANT A SNOW ADVISORY BY THEN, BUT WE`LL REEVALUATE THAT ON
TUESDAY.

TROF AXIS FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF QUICKLY AT THE POINT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD
BE DRY WITH MAYBE JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG
THE NORTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES ADJACENT TO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...DIDN`T FOCUS TOO MUCH TIME ON THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH FOR THE POTENTIAL WEEKEND SYSTEMS. 20-30 POPS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ABOUT AS GOOD AS WE CAN DO AT THIS POINT FOR ANY 12
HOUR BLOCK OF TIME FROM FRI-MON.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT ALL AIRFIELDS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL DIP INTO IFR CONDITIONS
DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN...BUT WILL MOSTLY STAY WITHIN MVFR
CONDITIONS. CEILINGS WILL STAY MOSTLY ABOVE 025...HOWEVER CEILINGS
WILL DIP BRIEFLY TO AROUND 015 AT SOME AIRFIELDS. THERE WILL BE A
WEAK WESTERLY SEABREEZE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS STAYING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
NORTH AND AROUND POINT CONCEPTION.

THE RAIN HAS BEGUN AT KLAX AND WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.
WINDS WEAK AND MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP INTO IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY
DURING HEAVIER RAINFALL...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD
REMAIN IN MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY.





.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&





PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...BOLDT/KITTELL