POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A VERY STRONG AND WET STORM

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THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A VERY STRONG AND WET STORM SYSTEM

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
550 AM PST SAT FEB 25 2006

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-260200-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-CUYAMA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-
VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
550 AM PST SAT FEB 25 2006

...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A VERY STRONG AND WET STORM SYSTEM
ACROSS CALIFORNIA MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...

A BROAD AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST COAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL THE WHILE TAPPING INTO A DEEP LAYER OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
VERY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.

A LONG FETCH OF MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES
BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH RAIN SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION ON MONDAY. THE PEAK OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. ANY
LINGERING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES SHOULD
END TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THEREAFTER AS THE STORM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL GIVE THIS STORM THE POTENTIAL TO BRING VERY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION. PRELIMINARY RAINFALL FORECASTS ARE
FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS.
FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE BETWEEN 5 AND 10
INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE SANTA BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES
COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

RAINFALL INTENSITIES COULD EASILY EXCEED ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR AT
TIMES ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH
PER HOUR POSSIBLE ACROSS FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. WITH SUCH
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED...FLASH FLOODING WITH CORRESPONDING
MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS WILL CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN FOR THE BURN AREAS.
A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK PRODUCT (LAXESFLOX) HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. IT IS LIKELY THAT FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES WILL NEED TO BE POSTED FOR AT LEAST THE BURN AREAS AS THE
EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE RESORT LEVELS DURING MOST OF THE EVENT.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY LIGHT. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 60 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES...WHERE
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
WINDS COULD EVEN REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES AS WELL.

ANYONE PLANNING TRAVEL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD MONITOR
THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST AND ROAD REPORTS BEFORE DEPARTING.
STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT. RESIDENTS IN AND AROUND THE BURN AREAS
ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...AND FOR POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS AS THIS SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPS.

$$

BRUNO




EDIS-02-25-06 0553 PST