AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS66 KLOX 212157
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PST MON MAR 21 2005

.SHORT TERM...

NEXT IN A SERIS OF FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEMS TREKKING ACROSS THE PACIFIC IS KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP OF OUR COASTAL WATERS WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT...HELPING TO SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BEST CHC OF RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...MOVING THROUGH LA COUNTY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...RAIN WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...BUT ONLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE IN INTENSITY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6500 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY AND WITH GENERAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT MOUNTAINS IN A SNOW ADVISORY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSETTLED AND WET AS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW MOVE OVER THE AREA AND ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL DRAPE ITSELF OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE INNERS COASTAL WATERS WEST OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC...FOCUSING AND ENHANCING PRECIPITATION FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL CARRY A LIKELY TO HIGH CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...MAINLY FOR SHOWERS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE HARD TO FIGURE OUT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL GO WITH GENERAL LIGHT AMOUNTS.

.LONG TERM...

WILL CONTINUE SMALL CHC OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AS LAST IN THIS SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EXITS THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE A DRYING OUT PERIOD UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST MONDAY TO BRING THAT AREA A SMALL CHC OF RAIN. OTHERWISE...THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE MARKED BY DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.



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.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).



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