FXUS66 KLOX 220442
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
845 PM PST MON FEB 21 2005

SHORT TERM...

THE LOW THAT IS HANGING AROUND LIKE AN UNWANTED GUEST REMAINS OFF OF POINT CONCEPTION. 00Z NAM CONTINUES THINKING OF BEGINING ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT AROUND 12Z TUESDAY IT STILL WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY TO L.A. COUNTY BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

NAM THINKS PVA WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 12Z KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. A LOBE OF NVA MOVES IN AROUND SUNRISE AND SHOULD QUELL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR A WHILE. THIS MIGHT CREATE MORE PROBLEMS AS IT MIGHT ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE TO DESTABILIZE THINGS IN TIME FOR THE MID AFTERNOON ARRIVAL OF YET ANOTHER POTENT VORT LOBE WHICH WILL LIKELY COOK UP A MEAN BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ETA BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW -2.3 LI AND MAX HAIL SIZE OF 2.3 INCHES AT THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE AFTERNOON VORT LOBE. PW FCST ACTUALLY HIGHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. SO ALL AREAS SHOULD BE KEEP A WARY EYE TO THE SKY.

WK PVA CONTINUES INTO WED AM AS UPR LOW SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST.

COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE FINE WEDNESDAY BUT WRAP AROUND VORTICITY COULD BACKSIDE INTO THE DESERTS AND NORTHERN MTNS AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. THURSDAY WILL BE LIKE WEDNESDAY BUT A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE IN THE DESERTS AS LOW WILL BE FURTHER AWAY.

EXTENDED... (FROM 230 DISCUSSION)

BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PAC THROUGH PERIOD. AND THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL MOVE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUN THROUGH MON AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

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LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).

FLASH FLOOD WARNING (SEE LAXFFWLOX).

WINTER STORM WARNING (SEE LAXWSWLOX).

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).



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