Re: More rain?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS66 KLOX 212245 CCA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PST MON FEB 21 2005


.SHORT TERM...WILL CONTINUE WITH FLOOD WATCH AS WELL AS WINTER STORM
WARNING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. PVA ROTATING
ONSHORE NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND CONFIRMS LATEST NAM
INITIALIZATION. RADAR INDICATED MODERATE RAIN RATES OVER THE COASTAL
SLOPES MOVING EAST AT APPROXIMATELY 20 KT. PRESENT SPEED OF PVA AND
RAIN WILL EXIT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
ON THE SOUTHERN LIMIT OF THE FEATURE WAS LESS ORGANIZED EXTENDING
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE BIGHT LATER THIS EVENING. MOISTURE GRADIENT IN
WATER VAPOR LOOP NEAR 34/125 WILL MOVE EAST AT APPROXIMATELY 30 KT
AND ENHANCE RAIN RATES OVER THE BIGHT. BRIEF RESPITE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL END LATER THIS
EVENING AS FEATURE MOVES ASHORE. MORE ENERGY FARTHER UPSTREAM NEAR
36/130 WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE ASHORE OVER THE LA BASIN OVERNIGHT
AND SPREAD ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 10 TO 20 INCHES ABOVE
5KFT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. HELICITY VALUES
INCREASE AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT TEMPERATURE CURVE STEEPENS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS NEARSHORE WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

.EXTENDED...BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PAC THROUGH PERIOD. AND THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL MOVE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE REMNANTS
OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUN THROUGH MON AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WINTER STORM WARNING (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).

&&

FORWOOD

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