AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS66 KLOX 162142
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
145 PM PST WED FEB 16 2005



.SHORT TERM...DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER VENTURA COUNTY HAS MOVED LITTLE TODAY, RESULTING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER VENTURA COUNTY AND POINTS WEST BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IN LA COUNTY. THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS ABOUT 600 NM TO OUR WEST, WITH ANY IMPULSES SPINNING AWAY FROM THE LOW REALLY FIZZLING OUT BEFORE THEY REACH LAND. BASED ON WHAT I`M SEEING ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WHAT THE MODELS ARE SAYING FOR TONIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, PRECIP WILL FALL TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE FROM VENTURA COUNTY WEST, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. PROBABLY NOT EVEN MEASURABLE IN MOST PLACES. SO THE AFTERNOON UPDATE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER POPS FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.



IT DOES LOOK LIKE OUR CHANCES FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL BE MUCH BETTER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. I`M NOT SEEING A HUGE AMOUNT OF RAIN, BUT CERTAINLY MORE THAN WE`VE SEEN THUS FAR.



STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION DUE THE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER SATURDAY.



SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 7000 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN LOWERING LATER FRIDAY TO BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET.



.LONG TERM...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE PRETTY POOR WITH THE GFS SO CONFIDENCE BEYOND ABOUT SATURDAY IS REALLY LOW. EACH RUN SEEMS TO FLIP FLOP FROM GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY-TUESDAY TO A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. 12Z RUN FAVORED THE "SMALL" SCENARIO. I WON`T BE MAKING TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD GIVEN THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT THE COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE, JUST NOT TOO SURE ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES.



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.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).



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