Re: AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED

FXUS66 KLOX 141654

AFDLOX



SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

855 AM PST MON FEB 14 2005



.SHORT TERM...CUTOFF LOW ABOUT 600 NM WEST OF SFO PULLING IN A LONG FETCH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW. UPPER LOW IS GOING TO STAY THERE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK, MAKING TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF PRECIP VERY DIFFICULT. ALSO, STILL PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE AND UPPER AIR FEATURES SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS I`D LIKE IT TO BE THIS CLOSE TO AN EVENT.



AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP ARE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS MODELS SHOW A DECENT THETA-E RIDGE MOVING IN, THEN AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES. PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE UNTIL LATE THURSDAY WHEN THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. UNTIL THEN, WE ARE IN A WARM FRONTAL SITUATION WHERE TYPICALLY THE CLOUDS ARE PLENTIFUL BUT RAINFALL RATES ARE LIGHT. WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, MOUNTAINS COULD STILL PICK UP SOME DECENT AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT HOURLY RATES PROBABLY WON`T OFTEN EXCEED A QUARTER INCH AT MOST. ALL IN ALL, A CLOUDY WEEK WITH PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE COOL, BUT NOT UNSEASONABLY SO. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE PRETTY HIGH, MOSTLY 7000 FEET AND ABOVE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.



.LONG TERM...PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK ON SUNDAY, THOUGH AGAIN TIMING IS STILL A MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT DOES APPEAR A VERY WEAK RIDGE WILL GIVE US A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT THEN ANOTHER TROF WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY FOR ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP.



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.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.



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