Re: Juniper Flats gets more rain!

FXUS66 KLOX 132302

AFDLOX



SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

300 PM PST SUN FEB 13 2005



.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL GIVE US MOSTLY DRY

WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS. A COLD

FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EXTENDS OFFSHORE TO AN UPPER LEVEL

LOW ABOUT 800 NM WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. LIGHT RAIN EXTENDS SOUTH

FROM THE FRONT INTO MONTEREY COUNTY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR

LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS FRONT TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN SAN LUIS

OBISPO OVERNIGHT. ALSO...AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...A SERIES OF

WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES ARE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE

REGION. THESE DISTURBANCES ARE PRODUCING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND

COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER

THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND WEST OF LA. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR DRY

CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT RAIN OR

DRIZZLE...ONSHORE WINDS WILL CARRY MOISTURE UP THE COASTAL SLOPES...

PRODUCING AREAS OF FOG. EXPECT LOCAL DENSE FOG IN THE FOOTHILLS AND

MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.



BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES ONLY TO

ABOUT 600 NM WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. HOWEVER...WELL AHEAD OF THE

LOW A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS TO ABOUT 100 NM WEST OF THE CENTRAL

COAST. THIS FRONT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE CENTRAL COAST OF CALIFORNIA

LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY...THEN THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

LATER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT MOSTLY LIGHT

RAIN. AT THIS TIME...WE EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON TUESDAY...

WITH LESS THAN A INCH COASTAL AND LESS THAN 2 INCHES IN THE

MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THIS FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED BEFORE TUESDAY...

SO STAY TUNED.



ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT

300 NM WEST OF MONTEREY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL

CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION PRODUCING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH

PERIODS OF RAIN. THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF RAIN

FOR THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AGGRAVATE EXISTING SATURATED

SOIL CONDITIONS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED THREAT FOR MUDSLIDES AND

URBAN FLOODING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE VERY HIGH...WITH SNOW LEVELS

MOSTLY ABOVE 7000 FEET. ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE

ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.



LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT LOOKS GOOD UNTIL SATURDAY

BEFORE SOME DISAGREEMENT BEGINS TO SET IN. EVEN THEN...THE MAJOR

FEATURE AGREEMENT IS GOOD...JUST SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. LOOK FOR

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CENTRAL COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO BE THE

MAJOR WEATHER PRODUCER FOR THE LONG TERM AS WELL. LOOK FOR THIS

SYSTEM TO REMAIN OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...PUMPING

MOISTURE AND SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SHOWER INTENSITY MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAJOR TROUGH AT THAT TIME. THE BOTTOM

LINE IS THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT A VERY WET WEEK THAT WILL LIKELY POSE

A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO ALL CALIFORNIANS.



&&



.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.



&&